000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242054
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015

Felicia consists of a swirl of low clouds with little or no deep
convection.  An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago suggested that the
system may have weakened a bit, but the pass did not capture all of
the circulation.  Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for
now.  Weakening is likely as the system traverses waters cooler
than 25 deg C and continues to ingest stable air.  The official
forecast now shows remnant low status in 12 hours, and Felicia could
degenerate even sooner than that.

The motion continues toward the northwest or 310/10 kt.  There is
little change to the track forecast philosophy from the last few
advisory packages.  Felicia or its remnants should be steered by the
flow to the southwest of a mid-level high pressure area through
tonight.  Thereafter, the system should turn westward and move
within the low-level easterly flow.  The official track forecast is
close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 22.8N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 23.4N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1800Z 23.9N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch