000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080841
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015

The aerial coverage of Blanca's deep convection is decreasing due to
cold waters and southerly shear of 15 to 20 kt.  The shear is also
resulting in an increasing separation between the low- and mid-level
circulations.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based
on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.
The above-mentioned negative factors and land interaction should
lead to the demise of Blanca in the next day or so, with the cyclone
forecast to become a depression in 24 hours and dissipate by 36
hours.

The decoupling of the low-level circulation has increased the
uncertainty in the center location, and the initial motion estimate
is a somewhat uncertain 345/13.  A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue until Blanca dissipates as the
cyclone moves between a mid-level high to the east and a deep-layer
low to the west.  The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to
begin affecting portions of the southwestern United States on
Tuesday.  For more information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0900Z 23.8N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 25.5N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 27.7N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan