000
WTPZ42 KNHC 072036
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Blanca has weakened quickly today.  The peak
SFMR-observed surface winds were 57 kt over the northeast quadrant.
On this basis, Blanca is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm
for this advisory.  Continued weakening is likely as the system will
be moving over progressively cooler waters with fairly strong
southerly to southwesterly shear, and interacting with the terrain
of the Baja California peninsula.  The official wind speed forecast
is in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.
Blanca should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.

The motion, 345/8 kt, is a bit slower than previous estimates.
Otherwise there is little change to the steering scenario.  Blanca
or its remnant should continue to move along the western periphery
of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation.  The official track
forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and medium-depth BAM tracks to
account for the expected shallowness of the cyclone, and is a little
slower than the previous NHC forecast.

Moisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of
the southwestern United States in a couple of days.  For more
information, please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 21.3N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 25.3N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 27.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 30.0N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch