000
WTPZ42 KNHC 062034
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 PM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Late this morning, satellite imagery began to show some decrease in
the deep convection surrounding the eye, and the latest Dvorak
estimates suggest that the winds are probably down to 105 kt.
Limited data from the reconnaissance plane, which had to return to
base, also indicate that the initial intensity is 105 kt. A portion
of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters, and the NHC
forecast calls for weakening.  This process should occur even faster
as the cyclone approaches the west coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula. The effect of the high terrain and increasing
shear will cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in about 3 days
or earlier. This is consistent with the intensity guidance which
weakens the cyclone fast.

Blanca is moving on a steady northwestward track or 320 degrees at 9
kt. The steering currents controlling the motion of Blanca remain
unchanged. The hurricane is expected to turn toward the
north-northwest tonight around the periphery of a mid-level high
centered over northern Mexico and southwestern Texas. The southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough will also contribute to the
northward motion of Blanca. There is high confidence in the track
forecast since the dynamical guidance has been consistently in very
good agreement. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the
tight guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.3N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.5N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 21.5N 111.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 23.8N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila