000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061432
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
900 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Blanca has made a significant comeback since yesterday. Satellite
images show a much better organized cloud pattern with a distinct
eye surrounded by very deep convection. The outflow is also well
established in all quadrants. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB indicate that the winds are up to 115 kt, making Blanca a
category 4 hurricane again on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane wind
scale. A weakening trend should begin tonight or early Sunday when
the hurricane encounters cool waters around 20 degrees North.
The weakening should occur even faster as the cyclone approaches
the west coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. The effect
of the high terrain and increasing shear will cause the cyclone
to become a remnant low in about 3 days.

Satellite fixes suggest that Blanca is moving toward the northwest
or 325 degrees at 9 kt. The steering controlling the motion of
of Blanca remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to continue
toward the northwest and then north-northwestward around the
periphery of mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and
southwestern Texas. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching
trough will also contribute to the northward motion of Blanca. The
NHC forecast follows the track guidance which, in fact, continues to
be in very good agreement, and it gives more weight to the consensus
of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 17.7N 109.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 18.8N 110.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 20.5N 110.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila