000 WTPZ42 KNHC 060235 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015 Blanca appears to have become a little better organized during the past few hours. The eye does not look quite as ragged although it is becoming more cloud filled. Deep convection is doing a better job of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry with very intense convection occurring within the southeastern quadrant. As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB. However, since the Hurricane Hunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier satellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to 85 kt on this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt. Mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving northwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to turn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough approaching from the west. This north-northwestward motion should then continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the southern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the main issue, and the official track forecast is near the various multi-model consensus models. If Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has another 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea surface temperatures are over 26C. After 24 hours, a more hostile environment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca becoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is then expected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate over the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models and is not much different from the previous forecast. Based on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula Saturday morning. Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg