000 WTPZ42 KNHC 052040 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015 An Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the core of Blanca and measured with the SFMR a peak wind of 81 kt as it was flying across the southeastern eyewall. These winds were confined to a very small area, and the surface winds were barely of hurricane force in the remainder of the circulation. However, it measured 90 kt at 700 mb as it was exiting the eye on the northwest side. On this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt. Although the NHC intensity forecast does not show strengthening, Blanca has a small opportunity to do so before it moves over cooler waters in about a day. Thereafter, a gradual weakening should begin, and Blanca is expected to be a tropical storm as it moves near or over the southern Baja California peninsula. It should then become a remnant low when it encounters the high terrain. In fact, the statistical intensity guidance dissipates the cyclone beyond 72 hours. Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Blanca is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance continues to be in good agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast follows very close the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF and is basically in the middle of the very tight dynamical guidance envelope. Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.3N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila