000 WTPZ42 KNHC 051435 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 900 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015 The intensity of Blanca has been oscillating around 85 and 90 kt since yesterday. Latest satellite intensity estimates indicate that there has been no change, and the winds are currently 85 kt. Deep convection is beginning to increase and is becoming better organized around the large circulation center. This could be an indication that some restrengthening is about to begin. The hurricane has about 24 hours to do so before the SSTs decrease, which should result in gradual weakening. In fact, Blanca is forecast to be a tropical storm as it moves near the southern Baja California peninsula and become a remnant low over the high terrain of the peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Blanca and will provide more information regarding the intensity and structure of the cyclone. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance is now in much better agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the very tight guidance envelope. Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 19.4N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila