000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041444
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

It appears that the combination of upwelling and an eyewall
replacement cycle has resulted in significant weakening of
Blanca during the past 18 hours or so. The eye is not as clear as
it was yesterday, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric
around what is left of the eye. Based on decreasing subjective and
objective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to
95 kt at this time. However, as soon as Blanca moves out of the area
where the upwelling has occurred in 12 to 24 hours, another round of
strengthening is anticipated, but not as much as indicated
yesterday. The NHC forecast is consistent with the SHIPS intensity
guidance, which still insists on forecasting restrengthening as the
cyclone moves again over warm waters. Beyond 48 hours, increasing
shear and cool waters should induce gradual weakening as Blanca
approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite fixes indicate that Blanca has begun to move slowly toward
the northwest or 325 degrees at 3 knots. The subtropical ridge which
has been blocking the motion of the cyclone is forecast to shift
eastward by most of the global models while a trough approaches the
west coast of the United States. This steering pattern favors a
general northwest to north-northwest track during the next 5 days.
The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows closely
the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.3N 105.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 13.2N 105.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 14.5N 107.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 17.5N 109.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 23.2N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 26.0N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila