000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021432
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca is intensifying.  Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and
prominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1
showed a low- and mid-level eye feature.  The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is
T4.5/77 kt.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this
advisory.  Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features
seen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the
cyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.
The NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca
becoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable
for continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM
and FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt.  However, even
this forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.
The shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at
days 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening
by the end of the forecast period.

Blanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little
motion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain
weak.  By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a
ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4
and 5.  The track model guidance is in general agreement on this
scenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability
late in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the
right again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were
made to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan