000
WTPZ42 KNHC 181436
TCDEP2

HURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Polo has not become any better
organized during the past several hours. There is a small central
dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band.
The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB. Polo has the opportunity to strengthen before the
northeasterly shear increases in 24 hours as indicated in the NHC
forecast. After that time, most of the guidance shows gradual
weakening, and in fact, the peak wind indicated by the intensity
consensus and the SHIPS models is lower than in previous runs.
Cooler waters from the upwelling caused by Odile will likely aid the
weakening process.

The best estimate of the initial motion is 310/7.  A strong ridge
of high pressure over Mexico is driving Polo west-northwestward and
northwestward. Most of the global models amplify the ridge, and this
pattern will continue to steer Polo on the same general track for
the next 3 to 4 days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass
well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the
southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track
forecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus
TVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are
predicting a track well removed from land.  By the end of the
forecast period, a weaker Polo will probably meander embedded within
the low-level flow, well away from land.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.3N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila