000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171455
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and
the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection
as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still
some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt
intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,
strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established
over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution
provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows
closely the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,
steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern
Mexico.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the
ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.
The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the
NHC forecast.  This forecast is not very different from the previous
one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and
lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,
the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a
portion of the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila