000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232128
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Lowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone.
The storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12
hours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a
post-tropical cyclone tonight.  The initial wind speed remains
35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from
TAFB.  The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a
stable air mass.  These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell
to degenerate into a remnant low soon.  The post-tropical cyclone is
expected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a
low-level ridge to its north.  A slight turn toward the west-
northwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an
increase in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the
forecast period.  There remains a considerable spread in the
guidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of
the low-level north of Lowell.  The GFS shows a more westward
track while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track
forecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi-
model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 24.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 24.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z 24.9N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0600Z 25.3N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1800Z 25.7N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 26.6N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z 28.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1800Z 29.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi