000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220834
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Lowell continues to exhibit a large ragged eye-like feature in
satellite imagery, however the convection surrounding it has
continued to warm and decrease in coverage overnight. The initial
wind speed has been reduced to 55 kt, which is a blend of the latest
Dvorak T- and current intensity numbers.  Lowell will be moving over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment during the next several days.  This should lead to
gradual weakening, and Lowell is expected to become a gale-force
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.  The cyclone should
continue to spin down after that time.

The latest satellite fixes indicate that Lowell is moving a little
faster toward the northwest or 320/7 kt.  The storm should continue
moving northwestward around the western portion of a building
mid-level ridge during the next couple of days.  After that
time, the weaker and more shallow post-tropical cyclone is expected
to turn west-northwestward to the south of a low-level ridge.  The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 21.5N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 23.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 24.6N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 25.4N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  25/0600Z 26.7N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 28.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z 30.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown