000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212040
TCDEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The structure of Lowell continues to feature a large eye, however
the convective banding is a little more ragged than it was 6 hours
ago. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB
and SAB Dvorak classifications. Lowell will be moving across the 26C
isotherm in the next few hours, and gradual weakening should begin
as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a more stable
airmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
weakening to a remnant low afterward.

Lowell jogged a little to the right over the past few hours, but
seems to have resumed a slow northwestward motion of 315/03. The
track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a
little faster toward the northwest as a ridge rebuilds to the east
and north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell
should be steered more toward the west-northwest by the
low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a
little to the right of the previous one through 72 hours to account
for the initial position, but is otherwise an update of the
previous NHC track. The official forecast also lies very close to
a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 20.3N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan