000
WTPZ42 KNHC 211432
TCDEP2

HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014

The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has
closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.
The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is
expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly
weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters
and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a
large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin
down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone
with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low
afterward.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level
trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a
ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should
result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,
followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone
becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the
north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan