000
WTPZ42 KNHC 201438
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

The satellite presentation of Lowell has not changed much during the
past few hours, with curved convective bands to the south and west
of the center but little deep convection in the northern semicircle.
The initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest
TAFB Dvorak estimate. Some strengthening is still possible in the
next day or so while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTs and in
an in an environment of low to moderate shear. After that time, the
cyclone will move over progressively cooler waters, which should
result in gradual weakening to a remnant low by day 4. The NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 310/04, as Lowell continues moving
slowly northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by
a mid/upper-level low over southern California. The upper low
is forecast to fill and move eastward after 24 hours, but Lowell
will maintain a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed
through day 3 as the rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north moves
westward. A weakening Lowell will then be steered toward the
west-northwest by an expansive low-level ridge over the north
Pacific. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement
on this scenario. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one
through 72 hours and has been adjusted a little to the left after
that time, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 19.1N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan