000 WTPZ42 KNHC 200234 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 There has been little change in the organization of Lowell since the last advisory, with multiple curved convective bands present mainly in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 45 kt, and that is also the initial intensity. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent in all directions. The initial motion is now 315/6. Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next 48 hours while a mid/upper-level shortwave trough digs southward along the California coast and weakens the subtropical ridge. The trough should subsequently move eastward allowing some ridging to rebuild to the north of the storm. This is expected to cause Lowell to accelerate toward the west-northwest by the end of the period. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that Lowell and Karina are likely to be close enough to interact by the end of the forecast period. At this time, it appears that the smaller Karina should have only a minor impact on the track of the larger Lowell. Lowell is expected to remain in a light/moderate vertical wind shear environment for the next 4 days or so. For the first 48 hours, the forecast track keeps the cyclone over sea surface temperatures of 26C-27C. After that, the temperatures along the track are expected to decrease to near 22C by 120 hours. Based on these factors, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous advisory through 48 hours, then shows a slightly faster weakening thereafter. The latter part of the intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.7N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven