000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190832
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Lowell is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the storm
has become better organized during the last several hours with the
associated banding features now beginning to wrap around the
center. ASCAT overpasses around 0500 UTC showed maximum reliable
winds in the 40-45 kt range and a large radius of maximum winds of
about 80 n mi.  The initial wind speed is set at 45 kt, which is a
little higher than the latest Dvorak classifications.  Lowell is
expected to remain in an environment of moderate shear, high
moisture, and over relatively warm water for another couple of
days. These conditions should allow for some additional
strengthening.  Beyond that time, Lowell will be moving over cooler
water and into a stable air mass, which should cause the system to
weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
previous one and in good agreement with the model consensus, IVCN.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, 295 degrees, at 6
kt steered by a ridge to its northeast.  A gradual turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by tonight when a trough deepens over
the southwestern United States.  This trough is expected to lift out
on Thursday, allowing for some ridging to become re-established to
the north of Lowell.  This pattern change should cause the system to
bend to the left at days 4 and 5.  The NHC track forecast is fairly
close to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

A northward surge of moisture over the northern Baja California
peninsula and the southwestern United States, partly associated with
the eastern portion of the cyclone's large circulation, is still
forecast by most of the global models to occur late Wednesday and
Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by your local National
Weather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rainfall
threat.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 17.3N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 17.7N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 18.3N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 18.9N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 24.0N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 26.2N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi