000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270237 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014 The circulation of Genevieve was briefly devoid of deep convection earlier this evening, however a recent convective burst near the center has allowed the depression to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 30 knots based on a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Despite the recent slight increase in convective activity, Genevieve remains embedded within a strongly sheared and drying environment and is forecast to become a remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Several models, most notably the GFS, HWRF and GFDL, suggest that regeneration is possible in a couple days after the low moves into the Central Pacific and into a lower-shear environment. However given the hostile current state of the near-storm environment, the official forecast reflects the UKMET and ECMWF forecast of a shallow remnant low persisting throughout the next 5 days. The depression is accelerating westward at 9 knots, and continues to be steered by low-level easterly flow south of the subtropical ridge. The dynamical models unanimously suggest that this general motion should continue for the next 48-72 hours. After that, there is some disagreement whether the system will begin to turn toward the northwest or remain on a westward heading. The official forecast splits these scenarios and lies near the multi-model consensus. Genevieve is forecast to be located very near 140W at 0600 UTC. Forecast advisories on Genevieve will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center after that longitude threshold is crossed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 12.5N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.6N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/0000Z 12.7N 142.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 14.0N 148.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z 14.5N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven