000 WTPZ42 KNHC 040234 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014 Boris has a rather disorganized appearance on satellite imagery, and consists of a couple of clusters of very deep convection near the coastline. Although it is questionable as to whether the cyclone is still a tropical storm, the current intensity is maintained at 35 kt as a precaution since the convection is still strong. This is also in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity estimate from TAFB. The cyclone will weaken after crossing the coastline, presumably in a few hours, and the surface circulation is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico in 36 hours - if not sooner. Although the center has been very difficult to locate on geostationary imagery, an AMSR2 microwave image from earlier today provided a fairly good center fix. This enabled some adjustments to the working best track of Boris, and extrapolation into this evening suggests that the storm has moved closer to the coast than earlier estimated. The cyclone should continue to move slowly northward on the western side of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from an anticyclone centered over the western Caribbean Sea. The official forecast track is a little faster than the previous one, and moves the center of Boris over southeastern Mexico over the next day or so. This is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. As the weakening tropical cyclone moves inland, it is likely to continue to produce very heavy rainfall. These rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 15.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.3N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 16.8N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 17.4N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch