000
WTPZ42 KNHC 031435
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014

The depression is not particularly well organized this morning with
microwave and visible images suggesting that multiple low-level
centers are rotating within the circulation envelope.  A mean of
these swirls suggest the center is on the south side of a burst of
convection.  Despite satellite intensity estimates of tropical-storm
strength, the lack of the low-level organization leads me to believe
the system is still a depression, and 30 kt will stay the initial
intensity.  Some strengthening is possible before landfall in a day
or so, although significant strengthening is not expected due to
land interaction and the poor initial structure.  The new NHC
prediction is the same as the previous one, a bit above most of the
guidance.

Best estimate of initial motion is north at 4 kt.  A mid- to
upper-level low west of the depression should generally provide a
southerly steering for the next couple of days.  The model
guidance, however, is really struggling for this system with some
reliable models again showing the cyclone south of Mexico for 5
days.  The interaction of the depression, upper-low, and a weak
system over the Bay of Campeche is really producing a complicated
scenario.  The official NHC forecast is just a little slower and
left of the previous one, but is highly uncertain.

Regardless of where the center is or the exact track, the main story
is the potential for extreme flooding over southeastern Mexico
during the next couple of days.  30 inches (750 mm) of rain or more
are possible in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of mountaineous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 14.6N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 15.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 15.8N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 16.4N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/1200Z 17.0N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 18.0N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake