000 WTPZ42 KNHC 030238 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become slightly better organized, with a more prominent banding feature over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and water vapor imagery shows an upper-level outflow anticyclone becoming established over the depression. Based on ship reports and a Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The tropical cyclone should remain in a low-shear environment, and the main impediments to strengthening appear to be the lack of a well-defined inner core and the proximity to land. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and the previous official forecast. Although the center is not easy to locate, geostationary and microwave satellite data suggest that is a little farther north than the previous estimates. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330 degrees at 4 kt. Steering currents are not very well-defined, but the cyclone is expected to move generally northward in the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge extending from the Caribbean Sea westward into Central America. The latest GFS deterministic and ensemble mean, and the HWRF model predictions are now in fairly good agreement that the center will be close to the coast in about 36 hours. The earlier ECMWF model run kept the cyclone well offshore through the forecast period. The ECMWF usually provides excellent guidance, but given the good agreement among the NCEP models it is felt that the most prudent course of action is to lean toward the latter models. Therefore, the official forecast brings the tropical cyclone to the coast somewhat sooner than the previous NHC track. This requires changing the tropical storm watch to a warning for the coast of Mexico. Although some strengthening of the cyclone is anticipated during the next day or so, the main threat from this system is likely to come from very heavy rains, particularly near regions of high terrain. This should result in significant and dangerous flooding and mud slides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 13.8N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.3N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 15.8N 94.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 16.1N 94.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 16.2N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch