000
WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012

ROSA IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN
SOON...ROSA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. EVEN IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
QUICKLY SHEARED OFF DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE
AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT STEERED BY 
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT ROSA...OR
ITS REMNANT LOW...WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD AND
SLOW BIAS...AND SINCE ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 12.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 12.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 13.2N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 13.9N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI