000
WTPZ42 KNHC 031438
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012
 
THE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER CONVECTIVE BURST.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT...IN LINE WITH THE
RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  ROSA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUDGEONED BY
STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING
AND A TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE LOWER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
 
ROSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KT.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
WOBBLES IN THE TRACK DUE TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION ROSA IS PRODUCING
BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH MORE A
NORTHWARD WOBBLE OF ROSA LIKELY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE AND A
MORE SOUTHWARD DEVIATION WHEN THE CENTER IS EXPOSED.  OVERALL...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED FOLLOWING THAT TREND. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 12.7N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 12.8N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.0N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 13.7N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 14.3N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE