000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030239
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ROSA BECAME COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST
OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY...AND CONVECTION HAD BEEN
DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A NEW AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION AROUND 0000 UTC...AND IT HAS BEEN EXPANDING RECENTLY.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THAT IS
NEARING THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND
CALLS FOR ROSA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN 30 KT.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST...LIKELY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF
ROSA. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS IS QUITE LARGE WITH THE GFS
AND GFDL MODELS SHOWING THE STORM TURNING NORTHWARD SOON...WHILE
THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THOSE SCENARIOS AND IS
NUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE
TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 12.7N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 12.7N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 12.8N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 13.1N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 13.5N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 14.5N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI