000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022033
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
200 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012
 
THE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...AN INDICATION
THAT MODERATE-TO-STRONG SHEAR IS BECOMING DETRIMENTAL TO THE
CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM 1805 UTC DID SHOW QUITE A FEW
WIND VECTORS OF 35 KT OR GREATER...SUGGESTING PEAK WINDS OF 40 KT. 
THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...ROSA WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY...AND TO A
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS.
 
ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW THAT ROSA HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER
TO THE SOUTHWEST...235/3.   LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOTICEABLY SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE 6H AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND...STAYING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 12.6N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 12.6N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 12.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 13.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE