000
WTPZ42 KNHC 012038
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
200 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH ROSA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS...AND THIS VALUE REMAINS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...ROSA HAS TEMPORARILY MISSED THE STRONGEST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 48H AND CAUSE
ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THUS THE
NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE BELOW
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.

MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT ROSA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY...AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHWARD RECENTLY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LITTLE NET MOTION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKE LOOKING AT A BROKEN RECORD
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY THE SAME GFS-BASED GUIDANCE ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...AND THE GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET/HWRF ON
THE LEFT SIDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE HFIP
CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE
AIDS...RESULTING IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 13.5N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 13.3N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 13.1N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 13.3N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE