000
WTPZ42 KNHC 011432
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
800 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2012
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ROSA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 35 TO 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY
TO 45 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A SLOW
WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE STORM COULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 48H DUE
TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT END UP FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION CALLS FOR BASICALLY THE
SAME GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
IN ABOUT 72H DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.
 
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON
THE STORM DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36H OR
SO DUE TO NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH INFLUENCES HOW QUICKLY ROSA TURNS
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THE LONGER RANGES...SO
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 13.9N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 13.5N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 14.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 15.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE