000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301011
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012
300 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
GENERALLY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...BUT THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE THAN IS
INDICATED BY ANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 295/7 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER 48
HOURS...ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN AND
THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1000Z 14.4N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 15.1N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 15.4N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 15.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG