000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190233
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
 
THE LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. A QUICK DEMISE TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED BY
24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DECAYING VORTEX WILL BE
STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 20.8N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 21.1N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 21.2N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 21.0N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 20.7N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN