000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180835
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012
 

A FEW HOURS AGO...SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED AN EYE
FEATURE. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND DEEP CONVECTON IS
GRADUALLY DECREASING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE
INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER
COOL WATERS...AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING.  ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS
OR EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LANE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A
SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT WILL MOST LIKELY TURN TO THE WEST STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 19.3N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 20.3N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA