000
WTPZ42 KNHC 172036
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
 
INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
A NARROW RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE
SLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND RECENT NHC AODT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.3/73 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES
SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08 KT. HURRICANE LANE IS ON TRACK
AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. LANE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE. AFTERWARD...THE
SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.

LANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED OR WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26C SSTS...AND WILL BE MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A COOLER...DRIER...AND
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY
WEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME...AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS...
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 
30 KT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LANE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 17.6N 127.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 20.2N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 21.2N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 21.6N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 21.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z 19.9N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART