000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170844 TCDEP2 HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN WEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT. RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08. LANE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN