000 WTPZ42 KNHC 161438 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012 DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS INDICATED ON A RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASS. BD-CURVE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS EXIST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT LANE COULD STRENGTHEN TO A LOW-END HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH HURRICANE STRENGTH EXPECTED AROUND THE 24-HOUR PERIOD...AND A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING TIME PERIODS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. LANE IS NOW MOVING WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...LANE IS FORECAST TO TURN ABRUPTLY TOWARD THE WEST AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 13.8N 125.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.5N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 17.2N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 18.6N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 20.2N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 20.0N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z 19.3N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS