000
WTPZ42 KNHC 110231
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE MIDDLE- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
OF GILMA ARE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.  SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
STILL SUPPORT 50 KT AT THIS TIME...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLING WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR.  THE
NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 36 HR...AND IT
COULD OCCUR SOONER GIVEN THE 23C SSTS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME.  

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT GILMA IS MOVING AROUND 340/4. 
A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED SHOULD
OCCUR AS GILMA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST
A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 19.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 20.0N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 20.6N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 21.1N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 21.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE