000
WTPZ42 KNHC 102032
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC STILL SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BUT SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY DOWN TO 50 KNOTS. GILMA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN.
MOST LIKELY...GILMA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR
SO. 

GILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS
AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 20.5N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 21.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/1800Z 22.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA