000
WTPZ42 KNHC 092038
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GILMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE. 
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER
COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS
ARE ALSO SLOWLY COMING DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT. 
GILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER AND APPEARS TO BE
INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A STEADY
DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY...AND GILMA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 72 HOURS.

GILMA HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWED DOWN WITH A MOTION OF
310/5 KT.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER GILMA GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 17.2N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.4N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.2N 120.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 20.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG