000
WTPZ42 KNHC 091436
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2012
 
AN 0826 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA
IS LOCATED ABOUT HALF A DEGREE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT.  WITH THIS STRUCTURE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED A BIT.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...WITH CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
METHODS RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND 75 KT.  IN ADDITION...TWO RECENT
AMSU PASSES YIELDED ESTIMATES OF 60 AND 71 KT.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  THE HURRICANE
SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
THE SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING COULD BE FAIRLY QUICK.  THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS GILMA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS DAY 3 AND DISSIPATING
BY DAY 5.
 
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...OR 305/6 KT.
GILMA IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
ONCE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE MOST NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS...RESPECTIVELY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST...AND IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.9N 118.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.4N 119.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 119.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 18.9N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 19.6N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 21.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG