000 WTPZ42 KNHC 090254 TCDEP2 HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012 GILMA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...NEAR 50 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING GILMA TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C AND IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 12 HOURS AS GILMA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT GILMA WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS CHANGE IN MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST ALONG 130W LONGITUDE AND A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 17.4N 120.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.6N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 19.6N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 20.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI