000
WTPZ42 KNHC 080246
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
GILMA IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM
CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0 OR 45 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 50
KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF ITS APPEARANCE IN
SATELLITE IMAGES.
 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS GILMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER 36 HOURS...
GILMA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS GILMA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 11 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...GILMA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ERNESTO...NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...TV15.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 15.4N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.9N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.2N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI