000
WTPZ42 KNHC 071513
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012

CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO STORM IN SECOND PARAGRAPH

FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200
UTC WERE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.  BASED ON THE INCREASED
ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM GILMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/10.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN THE
SHORT-TERM...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE.  IN
THE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
PACIFIC.  THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN SHOWING A DECELERATING WESTWARD
MOTION FROM 72-120 HR.  THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE
FIRST 48 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.

GILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS
OF 26C IN ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST UP TO THE PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HR...AND SHOWS A FASTER
WEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT TIME. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 14.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.5N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.3N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 17.0N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 17.3N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN