000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242056
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
BUD...AND ON THE FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE PLANE MEASURED A
MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR
ESTIMATE OF 89 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS ONCE IT FLIES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
 
BUD HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN AS HAD BEEN SHOWN BY THE MODELS.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES.  SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH
THE COASTLINE BEFORE IT IS IMPEDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND SHOWS THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
EVEN IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND STRONGER WINDS...THE HURRICANE STILL
HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR TO ITS WEST...BUD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY
24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL BRING
BUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...AND THAT IS SHOWN IN THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST.  FASTER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IN
3-4 DAYS.
 
NOW THAT THE FORECAST BRINGS BUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST
FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 16.4N 106.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.4N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 19.8N 105.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 48H  26/1800Z 20.5N 105.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  28/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN