000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240236 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012 BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTED AT A FORMATIVE BANDING-TYPE EYE. OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING. IN ADDITION...A 0050 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED A CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5 AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE NEWLY-FORMED CDO HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO T4.2. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...BUD SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHORTLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN PREDICTED. EITHER THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OR INTERACTION WITH THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE FSSE MODEL OUTPUT. THE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF BUD HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 350/05. RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...BUD HAS GRADUALLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN 48-72 HOURS...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND SLOW DOWN FURTHER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND LEAVES THE CYCLONE IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST AROUND THIS TIME...POSSIBLY EVEN ONSHORE. THESE MODELS THEN DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS THE RESULT OF ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO WHILE THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LARGELY A BLEND OF THE WEAKER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AFTER 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.0N 107.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.1N 107.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.4N 105.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 18.0N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN