000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.

BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. 
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. 
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG