000 WTPZ42 KNHC 230840 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012 THE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT SURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS BUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN