000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222033 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012 BUD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH A RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION. A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT AN APPARENT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. BUD HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND SPED UP A BIT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THE NHC FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3 IS LIKEWISE NUDGED TO THE WEST...LYING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF BUD WILL BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST POSITIONS ARE NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND KEEP THE CENTER OF BUD OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST. THE ANALYZED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT BELLIGERENT AT THE MOMENT...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUANDARY WHY BUD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION IS DECREASING. ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT MAY BE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 250 MB THAT WILL BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A FEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORTEX WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD MEXICO...AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BUD GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL FORECAST TIMES. EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST. WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO... COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.0N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.6N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.5N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.4N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.4N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG