000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211448 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012 THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER THAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT UNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE BEING MADE. DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE... THE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72 AND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE SHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 9.2N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 9.6N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BERG