000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210850 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A NEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY SHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL. THEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 9.4N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 9.7N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN