000 WTPZ42 KNHC 210246 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS SUFFICIENT CENTER DEFINITION AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND...CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT...AND THEN STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD...MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/04...AS THE CENTER WAS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. A SLOW WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS LEFT BY THE RETREATING PACIFIC RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ARE EXPECTED DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FAST MOTION OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS PARALLEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 9.3N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 9.5N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN